Saturday, May 25, 2013
FAIRFIELD-SUISUN, CALIFORNIA
99 CENTS

Climate contradiction: Less snow, more blizzards

WASHINGTON — With scant snowfall and barren ski slopes in parts of the Midwest and Northeast the past couple of years, some scientists have pointed to global warming as the culprit.

Then when a whopper of a blizzard smacked the Northeast with more than 2 feet of snow in some places earlier this month, some of the same people again blamed global warming.

How can that be? It’s been a joke among skeptics, pointing to what seems to be a brazen contradiction.

But the answer lies in atmospheric physics. A warmer atmosphere can hold, and dump, more moisture, snow experts say. And two soon-to-be-published studies demonstrate how there can be more giant blizzards yet less snow overall each year. Projections are that that’s likely to continue with man-made global warming.

Consider:

— The United States has been walloped by twice as many of the most extreme snowstorms in the past 50 years than in the previous 60 years, according to an upcoming study on extreme weather by leading federal and university climate scientists. This also fits with a dramatic upward trend in extreme winter precipitation — both rain and snow — in the Northeastern U.S. charted by the National Climatic Data Center.

— Yet the Global Snow Lab at Rutgers University says that spring snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere has shrunk on average by 1 million square miles in the last 45 years.

— And an upcoming study in the Journal of Climate says computer models predict annual global snowfall to shrink by more than a foot in the next 50 years. The study’s author said most people live in parts of the United States that are likely to see annual snowfall drop between 30 and 70 percent by the end of the century.

“Shorter snow season, less snow overall, but the occasional knockout punch,” Princeton University climate scientist Michael Oppenheimer said. “That’s the new world we live in.”

Ten climate scientists say the idea of less snow and more blizzards makes sense: A warmer world is likely to decrease the overall amount of snow falling each year and shrink snow season. But when it is cold enough for a snowstorm to hit, the slightly warmer air is often carrying more moisture, producing potentially historic blizzards.

“Strong snowstorms thrive on the ragged edge of temperature — warm enough for the air to hold lots of moisture, meaning lots of precipitation, but just cold enough for it to fall as snow,” said Mark Serreze, director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center. “Increasingly, it seems that we’re on that ragged edge.”

Just look at the last few years in the Northeast. Or take Chicago, which until late January had 335 days without more than an inch of snow. Both have been hit with historic storms in recent years.

Scientists won’t blame a specific event or even a specific seasonal change on global warming without doing intricate and time-consuming studies. And they say they are just now getting a better picture of the complex intersection of man-made climate change and extreme snowfall.

But when Serreze, Oppenheimer and others look at the last few years of less snow overall, punctuated by big storms, they say this is what they are expecting in the future.

“It fits the pattern that we expect to unfold,” Oppenheimer said.

The world is warming so precipitation that would normally fall as snow in the future will likely fall as rain once it gets above the freezing point, said Princeton researcher Sarah Kapnick.

Her study used new computer models to simulate the climate in 60 to 100 years as carbon dioxide levels soar. She found large reductions in snowfall throughout much of the world, especially parts of Canada and the Andes Mountains. In the United States, her models predict about a 50 percent or more drop in annual snowfall amounts along a giant swath of the nation from Maine to Texas and the Pacific Northwest and California’s Sierra Nevada mountains.

This is especially important out West where large snowcaps are natural reservoirs for a region’s water supply, Kapnick said. And already in the Cascades of the Pacific Northwest and in much of California, the amount of snow still around on April 1 has been declining so that it’s down about 20 percent compared to 80 years ago, said Philip Mote, who heads a climate change institute at Oregon State University.

Kapnick says it is snowing about as much as ever in the heart of winter, such as February. But the snow season is getting much shorter, especially in spring and in the northernmost areas, said Rutgers’ David Robinson, a co-author of the study on extreme weather that will be published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

The Rutgers snow lab says this January saw the sixth-widest snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere; the United States had an above average snow cover for the last few months. But that’s a misleading statistic, Robinson said, because even though more ground is covered by snow, it’s covered by less snow.

And when those big storms finally hit, there is more than just added moisture in the air, there’s extra moisture coming from the warm ocean, Robinson and Oppenheimer said. And the air is full of energy and unstable, allowing storms to lift yet more moisture up to colder levels. That generates more intense rates of snowfall, Robinson said.

“If you can tap that moisture and you have that fortuitous collision of moist air and below freezing temperatures, you can pop some big storms,” Robinson said.

Pennsylvania State University climate scientist Michael Mann points to the recent Northeast storm that dumped more than 30 inches in some places. He said it was the result of a perfect set of conditions for such an event: Arctic air colliding with unusually warm oceans that produced extra large amounts of moisture and big temperature contrasts, which drive storms. Those all meant more energy, more moisture and thus more snow, he said.

The Associated Press

The Associated Press

LEAVE A COMMENT

Discussion | No comments

The Daily Republic does not necessarily condone the comments here, nor does it review every post. Read our full policy

.

Solano News

Aviation archaeologist uncovers county’s flying past

By Ian Thompson | From Page: A1, 1 Comment | Gallery

 
Delta Protection Commission opposes state Delta plan

By Barry Eberling | From Page: A1

 
 
Wolk has four measures passed by committee

By Danny Bernardini | From Page: A3

 
Another Lake Berryessa recreation area available

By Barry Eberling | From Page: A3

 
Closures aplenty for Memorial Day

By Danny Bernardini | From Page: A3

Chili Cook Off benefits Solano SPCA

By Amy Maginnis-Honey | From Page: A3

 
Reported trespassers spark grass fire

By Danny Bernardini | From Page: A3

Man flees cops, arrested for alleged marijuana sales

By Heather Ah San | From Page: A4

 
 
The amazing human brain

By Scott Anderson | From Page: B12

 
Flag fever: Joe Morin celebrates America every day

By Amy Maginnis-Honey | From Page: B12 | Gallery

 
Weather for Saturday, May 25, 2013

By Daily Republic staff | From Page: B13

.

US / World

 
Woman gets 8 years for kidnapping granddaughter

By The Associated Press | From Page: A4

Damage reported from magnitude-5.7 quake in Calif.

By The Associated Press | From Page: A4

 
Company: Bay Bridge bolts made to exact specs

By The Associated Press | From Page: A4, 2 Comments

PG&E calls $2.25B fine for deadly blast excessive

By The Associated Press | From Page: A6

 
Arellano Felix drug cartel leader pleads guilty

By The Associated Press | From Page: A6

BART to consider lifting rush-hour bike ban

By The Associated Press | From Page: A6

 
Calif. plastic ocean debris bill dies in committee

By The Associated Press | From Page: A6, 1 Comment | Gallery

Obama’s drone rules leave unanswered questions

By The Associated Press | From Page: A8, 1 Comment

 
Trucker bumps I-5 bridge, sees tragedy behind him

By The Associated Press | From Page: A8 | Gallery

No bail for Pa. parents in faith-healing death

By The Associated Press | From Page: A8 | Gallery

 
Toronto mayor denies he smokes crack cocaine

By The Associated Press | From Page: A9

Afghan Taliban attack aid group, 2 guards killed

By The Associated Press | From Page: A9

 
Arias foreman: Sentencing decision unfair to jury

By The Associated Press | From Page: A9, 1 Comment

Judge: Ariz. sheriff’s office profiles Latinos

By The Associated Press | From Page: A9, 1 Comment

 
Syrian regime OKs peace talks amid skepticism

By The Associated Press | From Page: A9

After vote on gay youth, Scouts face more turmoil

By The Associated Press | From Page: A9

 
Can Tornado Alley become safer? Yes, within limits

By The Associated Press | From Page: A9, 1 Comment | Gallery

Soldier’s slaying prompts UK security review

By The Associated Press | From Page: A9

 
.

Opinion

Editorial Cartoon for May 25, 2013

By Daily Republic Syndicated Content | From Page: A11

 
Cheers, jeers for the week of May 19-25, 2013

By Daily Republic | From Page: A11

 
Marsy’s Law is working well

By Thomas Elias | From Page: A11

Thank you to NorthBay nurses and doctors

By Letter to the Editor | From Page: A11

 
.

Living

Today in History for May 25, 2013

By The Associated Press | From Page: A2, 1 Comment

 
Community calendar Saturday, May 25, 2013

By John Glidden | From Page: A2

My sisters are really angry that Mom’s paying me to be her caregiver

By Kathy Mitchell and Marcy Sugar | From Page: B7

 
Horoscopes for May 25, 2013

By Holiday Mathis | From Page: B7

.

Entertainment

TVGrid

By Daily Republic Syndicated Content | From Page: A5

 
Latest ‘Bachelorette’ won’t say if she’s engaged

By The Associated Press | From Page: A5 | Gallery

.

Sports

Tim Lincecum roughed up by Rockies again

By The Associated Press | From Page: B1

 
Mustangs, Bulldogs clean up at SJS Masters finals

By Mike Corpos | From Page: B1 | Gallery

Sharks try to shrug off Game 5 defeat

By The Associated Press | From Page: B1

 
Bayern faces Dortmund in Champions League final

By The Associated Press | From Page: B1

Young’s 3-run homer gives A’s 6-5 win over Astros

By The Associated Press | From Page: B1

 
Pacers steal Game 2 from Heat, 97-93

By The Associated Press | From Page: B2

Grizzlies, Memphis ready to ‘believe’ vs. Spurs

By The Associated Press | From Page: B2

 
McIlroy, Donald miss cut at BMW PGA Championship

By The Associated Press | From Page: B3

Bowie Young, Cavalleri tied in the Bahamas

By The Associated Press | From Page: B3

 
Kuchar leads Colonial when 2nd round suspended

By The Associated Press | From Page: B3

Cochran, Perry tied for lead in Senior PGA

By The Associated Press | From Page: B3

 
Defending champ Keselowski tries to build on title

By The Associated Press | From Page: B3

Atlas of Indianapolis: Carpenter on pole at Indy

By The Associated Press | From Page: B3

 
Roger Federer, always at Grand Slam tournaments

By The Associated Press | From Page: B4

Bears to retire Ditka’s No. 89

By The Associated Press | From Page: B4

 
NYC lawsuit alleging Favre sent racy texts settled

By The Associated Press | From Page: B4

Local sports for Saturday and Sunday, May 25-26, 2013

By Daily Republic staff | From Page: B5

 
Sports on TV for Saturday and Sunday, May 25-26, 2013

By Daily Republic staff | From Page: B5

Saratoga marks 150 years of thoroughbred racing

By The Associated Press | From Page: B13

 
Friday’s 19th stage of Giro canceled due to snow

By The Associated Press | From Page: B13

.

Business

Home Style: Create artful displays with collections

By Mary Carol Garrity | From Page: C2

 
US rate on 30-year mortgages rises to 3.59 percent

By The Associated Press | From Page: C2

Candice Tells All: Basement fireplace becomes focal point of retreat

By Scripps Howard News Service | From Page: C3

 
Real estate transactions for May 25, 2013

By Daily Republic | From Page: C3

Netflix looks to hook subscribers with ‘Arrested’

By The Associated Press | From Page: B10 | Gallery

 
Summer travel forecast: Better, but no blowout

By The Associated Press | From Page: B10

Furlough Friday: Unpaid day off for many in gov’t

By The Associated Press | From Page: B10

 
.

Obituaries

Jeffrey E. Woodhouse

By John Glidden | From Page: A4, 1 Comment

 
Charles E. Brooks Jr.

By John Glidden | From Page: A4

Destiny Saucedo

By John Glidden | From Page: A4

 
Anthony Reed

By John Glidden | From Page: A4

Chand R. Sharma

By John Glidden | From Page: A4

 
.

Comics

Baldo

By Daily Republic Syndicated Content | From Page: B6

 
For Better or Worse

By Daily Republic Syndicated Content | From Page: B6

Sally Forth

By Daily Republic Syndicated Content | From Page: B6

 
Garfield

By Daily Republic Syndicated Content | From Page: B6

Dilbert

By Daily Republic Syndicated Content | From Page: B6

 
Fort Knox

By Daily Republic Syndicated Content | From Page: B6

Peanuts

By Daily Republic Syndicated Content | From Page: B6

 
Blondie

By Daily Republic Syndicated Content | From Page: B6

Pickles

By Daily Republic Syndicated Content | From Page: B6

 
Frank and Ernest

By Daily Republic Syndicated Content | From Page: B6

B.C.

By Daily Republic Syndicated Content | From Page: B6

 
Wizard of Id

By Daily Republic Syndicated Content | From Page: B6

Get Fuzzy

By Daily Republic Syndicated Content | From Page: B6

 
Zits

By Daily Republic Syndicated Content | From Page: B6

Beetle Bailey

By Daily Republic Syndicated Content | From Page: B6

 
Rose is Rose

By Daily Republic Syndicated Content | From Page: B6

Crossword

By Daily Republic Syndicated Content | From Page: B7

 
Bridge

By Daily Republic Syndicated Content | From Page: B7

Sudoku

By Daily Republic Syndicated Content | From Page: B7

 
Word Sleuth

By Daily Republic Syndicated Content | From Page: B7

Cryptoquote

By Daily Republic Syndicated Content | From Page: B7