Thursday, April 24, 2014
FAIRFIELD-SUISUN, CALIFORNIA
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Bullet train timeline unchanged despite setbacks

California High Speed Rail

File-This undated file image provided by the California High Speed Rail Authority shows an artist's rendering of a high-speed train speeding along the California coast. A House committee meets in Washington Wednesday Jan. 15, 2014, to investigate California's beleaguered high-speed rail project, which has been plagued by legal setbacks and has yet to start construction. (AP Photo/California High Speed Rail Authority,File) NO SALES

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From page A5 | February 08, 2014 | 2 Comments

SACRAMENTO — The California High-Speed Rail Authority lowered its estimated future revenue based on new ridership projections in a report released Friday that also slightly lowered the project’s $68 billion price tag.

Despite legal setbacks, the agency is leaving unchanged its timeline for completing the entire 520-mile system by 2028. Rail authority officials have warned that the protracted court battles over the bullet train’s financing could cause serious delays, but the updated business plan does not reflect that concern.

More robust analyses of population, traffic and other factors show the system will have more riders taking shorter trips than previously forecast, the rail authority report said, bringing in revenue that is lower than originally projected – 5 percent lower in 2025 and 10 percent lower in 2040. Nevertheless, the report says the system will still be able to operate without a taxpayer subsidy.

The shorter trips also will push operations and maintenance costs higher, the report said.

The overall cost to build the train system is now forecast to be $67.6 billion, down from the $68.4 billion projected two years ago.

The rail authority is required by law to update its business plan every two years, and the latest draft largely projects a rosy picture for a project that has suffered repeated setbacks in recent months. After saying construction would begin last summer, officials now are projecting a spring start for work in the Central Valley.

“The Authority is staying focused on delivering its commitment to implement a statewide high-speed rail system that will tie together northern, central and southern California cities in a way that they have never been connected before,” the report said.

The plan released Friday is separate from a financing plan that was thrown out by a Sacramento County Superior Court judge in a case now on appeal. The judge ruled that the rail authority violated the terms of Proposition 1A, which voters approved in 2008, by failing to identify how it will pay for the entire first segment, which is projected to cost $31 billion.

The judge’s rulings also have prevented the state from selling $8.6 billion in bonds to help pay for the project and raised concerns that the state will not be able to meet its commitments to match some $3.3 billion in federal funding.

In one scenario presented in Friday’s plan, the system would have a $50 million operating deficit in 2022, although revenue would climb sufficiently to cover costs in future years, the report said. It recommends a multiyear operating contract to even out revenues or a short-term capital reserve loan as backup.

The Legislature previously asked the rail authority to improve its ridership numbers. Rail planners now expect more trips of shorter duration, although the report does not explain why that is the case. It forecasts from 7.4 million to 14 million riders on the initial 130-mile segment in 2025, rising quickly to 18.1 million to 31.7 million riders in 2030.

It also notes that many so-called “millennials” born between 1983 and 2000 are eschewing cars in favor of public transportation and urban living.

“As high-speed rail becomes part of California’s transportation network over the next several decades, the largest and most public transit-oriented generation will be getting into its prime traveling years,” the report said.

The report also cites progress by the rail authority in building a new leadership team that is focused on “building new and better relationships” with those affected by the project.

Those who have sued to try to block the project include a group of Kings County farmers and landowners in the case that prompted the Sacramento County Superior Court judge to toss out the financing plan, and San Francisco Bay Area Peninsula residents.

The Associated Press

The Associated Press

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Discussion | 2 comments

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  • The MisterFebruary 08, 2014 - 7:42 am

    It's actually a good thing for the government that setbacks are happening. Why? Because the whole purpose of this exercise is not to put in a high-speed train but it is for the state to acquire rights to the land in the lower central valley... where one of the planet's largest undeveloped shale oil fields is located. The state is will tie up this land to 1) sell rights to oil companies or 2) will keep this oil off the market to keep the price of domestically produced oil artificially high. Either way it spells big money for the state government and a handsome return for big oil. You didn't really think that Jerry Brown was stoopid enough to believe the state needed a high-speed train to nowhere, did you?

    Reply | Report abusive comment
  • Legend1949February 08, 2014 - 8:21 am

    Maybe the train to nowhere could stop by the nowhere station that's being built by Peabody Road

    Reply | Report abusive comment
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