Saturday, December 27, 2014
FAIRFIELD-SUISUN, CALIFORNIA
99 CENTS

Predicting the ‘long run’ is deceptive

stevenson column sig

By
From page B7 | February 24, 2013 |

Nouriel Roubini, one of the most famous and feared market observers these days, is an economics professor at New York University and a keen analyst of the stock market. Friday morning, he said that in the short term we would have a strong market, but in the “long run” the economy and the stock market would be catastrophic.

If you’re wondering what the “long run” means, you could do no better than looking back to the famous economist John Maynard Keynes.

I would guess that many of you know the comment that Keynes is known for. When asked what he meant by the “long run,” he said, ominously, “In the long run, we are all dead.” Hard to argue with that observation, isn’t it? Think about it: How often do you hear someone say, “Well, I think (the market, whatever) will be fine in the short run, but I’m worried about the long run.”

That’s a truism when predicting the outlook for so many items, from stocks to real estate to gold to almost any investment. A skeptic might say that if it’s that obvious, what good is it?

There are many adages about the market that most investors ignore. I’m probably repeating this one, but about six decades ago, my mother invested in the early days of a long bull market. One weekend, our neighbor, Mr. Blake – we always called older neighbors “Mr.” or “Mrs.” – beckoned me over and said, “I’ve got the secret of making money in the market for your mother: buy low and sell high. But don’t tell anyone else.”

I was really excited and ran back home to give my mother the “secret.” She was sitting at the kitchen table with one of my now late older brothers and I blurted out, “Mr. Blake just gave me the secret of making money in the stock market!” I was encouraged to divulge this secret and I said, “Well, it’s ‘buy low and sell high.’ ” I’m still embarrassed about how naïve I was. But if you think about it, if I can quote Shakespeare, “It’s a rule more honored in the breach than the observance.”

There are those who would say, just buy a good stock and put it away. In a way, that’s a truism. You wouldn’t know it’s a “good” stock until years have passed.

How about the “blue chips” like Chrysler, Woolworth, W.T. Grant and hundreds of others that went bankrupt or just barely survived? This is not to say that you shouldn’t listen to those with intelligence and experience, and right now Professor Roubini is probably at the top of the list of those worth listening to.

But then there’s the gold hustlers, whose commercials come very close to offering a guarantee of future profits. They point out that in the past 10 years, silver has outperformed the stock market by some 86 percent. There is no mention of the prior 10 years, when silver sat at just above a dollar while stocks were moving up.

Reading further into Professor Roubini’s forecast, his “short term” is two or three years. At my age, that’s definitely long term.

Bud Stevenson, a stockbroker, lives in Fairfield. Reach him at Bsteven254@aol.com.

LEAVE A COMMENT

Discussion | No comments

The Daily Republic does not necessarily condone the comments here, nor does it review every post. Read our full policy

.

Solano News

Suisun Valley celebrates appellation’s anniversary

By Daily Republic staff | From Page: A1 | Gallery

 
Suisun museum adds Japanese-American internment exhibit

By Ian Thompson | From Page: A1 | Gallery

Girl’s selfless act boosts Suisun Wildlife Center

By Susan Hiland | From Page: A2

 
Beer for 1st butterfly of year challenge returns

By Ian Thompson | From Page: A3 | Gallery

 
Fairfield firefighters save Christmas for family

By Ian Thompson | From Page: A3

SF Giants championship trophy coming to Vacaville

By Ian Thompson | From Page: A3

 
Fire damages Fairfield home

By Ian Thompson | From Page: A3

Car rolls over on Highway 113

By Ian Thompson | From Page: A3

 
Fairfield man killed after family gathering in Napa

By Daily Republic staff | From Page: A4, 1 Comment

USA Weekend magazine ceases publication

By Glen Faison | From Page: B6

 
Suisun City police log: Dec. 25, 2014

By Susan Hiland | From Page: A9

Fairfield police log: Dec. 25, 2014

By Susan Hiland | From Page: A9

 
 
.

US / World

California braces for first widespread frost

By The Associated Press | From Page: A1

 
California gears up for migrant driver’s licenses

By The Associated Press | From Page: A1

Inmate breaks out of jail through ventilation duct

By The Associated Press | From Page: A4, 1 Comment

 
People slide down bedsheets to escape motel fire

By The Associated Press | From Page: A4

Court: LA Police Department policy for impounding cars is OK

By The Associated Press | From Page: A4

 
Man shot to death in struggle over officer’s baton

By The Associated Press | From Page: A4

4 dead in fiery Northern California car crash

By The Associated Press | From Page: A4

 
Police officer shoots woman in leg in Hollywood

By The Associated Press | From Page: A4, 2 Comments

Bodies of woman, 3 grandsons found in burned home

By The Associated Press | From Page: A5

 
Truck crashes into home; 93-year-old resident dies

By The Associated Press | From Page: A5

Scientists target mess from Christmas tree needles

By The Associated Press | From Page: A5

 
Baby ostracized by other gorillas will switch zoos

By The Associated Press | From Page: A5

Thousands attend 8-hour wake for slain NYC officer

By The Associated Press | From Page: A5, 1 Comment

 
Study: Marijuana use has increased in Colorado

By The Associated Press | From Page: A5

Dog not gone: Rescue in the Columbia Gorge

By The Associated Press | From Page: A5

 
Feline fame in cyberspace gives species a boost

By The Associated Press | From Page: A6

Lawmakers promise to help strapped oil-patch towns

By The Associated Press | From Page: A6

 
At 101, dedicated union rep is calling it quits

By The Associated Press | From Page: A10

Can GOP shatter ‘Obama coalition’ in 2016?

By The Associated Press | From Page: A10

 
GPS used to track some immigrants caught at border

By The Associated Press | From Page: A10

10th anniversary of tsunami is marked with tears

By The Associated Press | From Page: A11

 
.

Opinion

Sony hack is reminder of broader Sony dysfunction

By William Pesek | From Page: A8

 
A proud man, a good honorable man

By Letter to the Editor | From Page: A8, 4 Comments

 
.

Living

Today in History: Dec. 27, 2014

By The Associated Press | From Page: A2

 
Community Calendar: Dec. 27, 2014

By Susan Hiland | From Page: A2

Horoscopes: Dec. 27, 2014

By Holiday Mathis | From Page: B5

 
Remember, caregivers need some care attention, too

By Kathy Mitchell and Marcy Sugar | From Page: B5

Cow that fled slaughterhouse in 2006 has new home, again

By The Associated Press | From Page: B10

 
.

Entertainment

TVGrid

By Daily Republic Syndicated Content | From Page: B6

 
Jazz great Buddy DeFranco dies at age 91

By The Associated Press | From Page: A7

 
1990s TV star ‘Screech’ charged in bar stabbing

By The Associated Press | From Page: A7

.

Sports

Cleveland reaches 50 years of sports futility

By The Associated Press | From Page: B1 | Gallery

 
Games to Remember from 2014

By The Associated Press | From Page: B1 | Gallery

 
Suns outlast Kings 115-106 for 5th straight win

By The Associated Press | From Page: B1

Anthony Davis, Roman meet over tweet

By The Associated Press | From Page: B1

 
Arizona’s Lindley back at starter, Stanton has infection

By The Associated Press | From Page: B2

Prep JV boys basketball: Vanden gets win in Dixon tourney

By Daily Republic staff | From Page: B2

 
Could Watt be 1st NFL MVP from defense since Taylor in 1986?

By The Associated Press | From Page: B2

Dan Uggla joins Nationals for minor league deal

By The Associated Press | From Page: B2

 
Georgia’s Richt: RB Todd Gurley heading to NFL

By The Associated Press | From Page: B2

Slumping New Jersey Devils fire coach Pete DeBoer

By The Associated Press | From Page: B2

 
No. 1 Kentucky, No. 4 Louisville resume rivalry

By The Associated Press | From Page: B2

Raiders rookie CB makes most of opportunity

By The Associated Press | From Page: B2

 
High-scoring offenses create longer college games

By The Associated Press | From Page: B2

Anderson: post-game petulance was out of character

By The Associated Press | From Page: B2 | Gallery

 
Chiefs QB Alex Smith out with lacerated spleen

By The Associated Press | From Page: B2

Globetrotters’ Robert ‘Showboat’ Hall dies

By The Associated Press | From Page: B2

 
NC State wins Bitcoin Bowl to cap turnaround year

By The Associated Press | From Page: B2

Rutgers beats North Carolina in Quick Lane Bowl

By The Associated Press | From Page: B2

 
La. Tech beats Illinois 35-18 in Heart of Dallas Bowl

By The Associated Press | From Page: B2

This date in sports history for Saturday, Dec. 27, 2014

By The Associated Press | From Page: B3

 
Weather for Saturday, Dec. 27, 2014

By Daily Republic staff | From Page: B11

 
.

Business

In 2014, US economy began shaky, finished strong

By The Associated Press | From Page: A1

 
Missouri 1st to see average gas price below $2

By The Associated Press | From Page: B6

Holiday deliveries improve but hiccups continue

By The Associated Press | From Page: B6

 
.

Obituaries

John Benjamin Calvin Adams

By Nancy Green | From Page: A4

 
Frances Cruz Pangelinan

By Nancy Green | From Page: A4

.

Comics

B.C.

By Daily Republic Syndicated Content | From Page: B4

 
Sally Forth

By Daily Republic Syndicated Content | From Page: B4

Zits

By Daily Republic Syndicated Content | From Page: B4

 
For Better or Worse

By Daily Republic Syndicated Content | From Page: B4

Pickles

By Daily Republic Syndicated Content | From Page: B4

 
Garfield

By Daily Republic Syndicated Content | From Page: B4

Frank and Ernest

By Daily Republic Syndicated Content | From Page: B4

 
Baby Blues

By Daily Republic Syndicated Content | From Page: B4

Blondie

By Daily Republic Syndicated Content | From Page: B4

 
Rose is Rose

By Daily Republic Syndicated Content | From Page: B4

Peanuts

By Daily Republic Syndicated Content | From Page: B4

 
Wizard of Id

By Daily Republic Syndicated Content | From Page: B4

Dilbert

By Daily Republic Syndicated Content | From Page: B4

 
Get Fuzzy

By Daily Republic Syndicated Content | From Page: B4

Baldo

By Daily Republic Syndicated Content | From Page: B4

 
Beetle Bailey

By Daily Republic Syndicated Content | From Page: B4

Crossword

By Daily Republic Syndicated Content | From Page: B5

 
Cryptoquote

By Daily Republic Syndicated Content | From Page: B5

Sudoku

By Daily Republic Syndicated Content | From Page: B5

 
Bridge

By Daily Republic Syndicated Content | From Page: B5

Word Sleuth

By Daily Republic Syndicated Content | From Page: B5

 
.

Home Seller 12/27/14

Real estate transactions for Dec. 27, 2014

By Daily Republic | From Page: HSR2

Average US 30-year mortgage edges up slightly

By The Associated Press | From Page: HSR2